1  import math
 2  BLKTIME = 17
 3  X = 0.28
 4  
 5  faclog = [1]
 6  for i in range(5000):
 7      faclog.append(faclog[-1] * len(faclog))
 8  
 9  def fac(x):
10      return faclog[x]
11  
12  def poisson(expected, actual):
13      if expected == 0:
14          return 1 if actual == 0 else 0
15      return 2.718281828 ** (-expected + actual * math.log(expected) - math.log(fac(actual)))
16  
17  def p_we_win(k, x):
18      return 1 - (x / (1.0 - x)) ** k
19  
20  def p_we_win_after(s):
21      p = 0
22      for i in range(4000):
23          p += poisson(s * 1.0 / BLKTIME, i) * p_we_win(i, X)
24      return p
25  
26  for i in range(0, 7200, 12):
27      print i, p_we_win_after(i)